Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 132,069
2 South Dakota 128,820
3 Rhode Island 122,333
4 Utah 117,383
5 Arizona 113,842
6 Tennessee 113,137
7 Oklahoma 108,732
8 Iowa 108,199
9 Arkansas 107,926
10 Wisconsin 107,025
11 Nebraska 105,533
12 Kansas 103,065
13 South Carolina 102,641
14 Alabama 102,259
15 Mississippi 100,278
16 Indiana 99,883
17 Idaho 97,579
18 Nevada 96,493
19 Illinois 95,200
20 Wyoming 95,055
21 Montana 94,850
22 Georgia 94,484
23 Louisiana 93,683
24 Texas 93,483
25 Missouri 93,222
26 Kentucky 93,203
27 New Jersey 92,636
28 California 91,389
29 Delaware 91,285
30 Florida 91,144
31 New Mexico 89,414
32 New York 88,070
33 Minnesota 87,431
34 Massachusetts 86,363
35 North Carolina 84,142
36 Ohio 84,137
37 Alaska 81,267
38 Connecticut 80,963
39 Colorado 76,685
40 Pennsylvania 75,056
41 West Virginia 74,858
42 Virginia 69,049
43 Michigan 66,342
44 Maryland 64,467
45 District of Columbia 59,519
46 New Hampshire 56,970
47 Washington 45,946
48 Puerto Rico 42,479
49 Oregon 37,546
50 Maine 34,409
51 Vermont 26,236
52 Hawaii 19,736

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Missouri 2,810
2 Rhode Island 463
3 New Jersey 383
4 New York 314
5 Connecticut 311
6 District of Columbia 277
7 Alaska 264
8 Idaho 255
9 Colorado 224
10 Michigan 219
11 Florida 195
12 Pennsylvania 194
13 North Carolina 189
14 Massachusetts 188
15 Delaware 183
16 Iowa 180
17 Minnesota 177
18 Tennessee 169
19 Texas 169
20 South Carolina 168
21 Kentucky 164
22 Kansas 155
23 Georgia 154
24 Utah 153
25 Vermont 153
26 New Hampshire 147
27 Nebraska 144
28 Ohio 143
29 Virginia 143
30 Wyoming 143
31 South Dakota 140
32 West Virginia 132
33 Montana 126
34 Louisiana 123
35 Maryland 123
36 Illinois 121
37 Maine 114
38 Washington 108
39 Alabama 107
40 Oklahoma 105
41 Nevada 101
42 Arizona 99
43 California 99
44 Arkansas 97
45 North Dakota 97
46 Indiana 96
47 Mississippi 96
48 New Mexico 89
49 Wisconsin 85
50 Oregon 79
51 Hawaii 28
52 Puerto Rico 24

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,667
2 New York 2,472
3 Rhode Island 2,415
4 Massachusetts 2,395
5 Mississippi 2,299
6 Arizona 2,253
7 Connecticut 2,174
8 South Dakota 2,152
9 Louisiana 2,110
10 Alabama 2,084
11 North Dakota 1,943
12 Pennsylvania 1,912
13 Indiana 1,897
14 New Mexico 1,831
15 Illinois 1,820
16 Arkansas 1,783
17 Iowa 1,775
18 South Carolina 1,705
19 Tennessee 1,684
20 Michigan 1,671
21 Kansas 1,665
22 Georgia 1,647
23 Nevada 1,645
24 Texas 1,584
25 Delaware 1,532
26 Ohio 1,510
27 Florida 1,487
28 District of Columbia 1,469
29 Missouri 1,422
30 California 1,388
31 Maryland 1,323
32 West Virginia 1,300
33 Montana 1,298
34 Wisconsin 1,228
35 Minnesota 1,200
36 Wyoming 1,193
37 Oklahoma 1,188
38 Nebraska 1,153
39 Virginia 1,153
40 Kentucky 1,124
41 North Carolina 1,108
42 Idaho 1,064
43 Colorado 1,057
44 New Hampshire 872
45 Washington 677
46 Puerto Rico 648
47 Utah 621
48 Oregon 548
49 Maine 537
50 Alaska 397
51 Vermont 338
52 Hawaii 314

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Oklahoma 14
2 Minnesota 9
3 Virginia 9
4 Arkansas 6
5 Delaware 6
6 Missouri 6
7 Alabama 5
8 California 5
9 New Mexico 5
10 Rhode Island 5
11 Texas 5
12 Wyoming 5
13 Connecticut 4
14 Florida 4
15 Georgia 4
16 Iowa 4
17 Kansas 4
18 Kentucky 4
19 Louisiana 4
20 Maine 4
21 Massachusetts 4
22 Mississippi 4
23 New Jersey 4
24 New York 4
25 Ohio 4
26 Arizona 3
27 District of Columbia 3
28 Idaho 3
29 Nevada 3
30 North Carolina 3
31 Maryland 2
32 Pennsylvania 2
33 Tennessee 2
34 Washington 2
35 Wisconsin 2
36 Illinois 1
37 Indiana 1
38 Michigan 1
39 Montana 1
40 Nebraska 1
41 South Carolina 1
42 South Dakota 1
43 Utah 1
44 Vermont 1
45 Alaska 0
46 Colorado 0
47 Hawaii 0
48 New Hampshire 0
49 North Dakota 0
50 Oregon 0
51 Puerto Rico 0
52 West Virginia 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 342,023 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 292,014 2 99
Bent Colorado 265,734 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 242,629 4 99
Dewey South Dakota 241,514 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 131,346 227 92
Richland South Carolina 101,347 1088 65
York South Carolina 96,940 1279 59
Orange California 82,852 1952 37
Pierce Washington 43,637 2901 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Galax city Virginia 7,878 3 99
Foard Texas 7,792 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,669 5 99
Orange California 1,369 1836 41
Davidson Tennessee 1,269 1965 37
Richland South Carolina 1,224 2028 35
York South Carolina 1,214 2047 34
Pierce Washington 638 2707 13

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons